Overconfidence Quiz

For each of the questions below, provide a numerical range that you are 90% sure contains the correct answer. In particular, if you are very uncertain, then give a very wide range; and if you happen to be quite certain, then give a narrow range.

If you are perfectly calibrated then 90% of your intervals (no more, no less) should contain the right answers.

Please try your best, but don't look up the answers!

If you scored lower than 90%, your decisions may be susceptible to the overconfidence effect. The overconfidence effect is when a person's subjective confidence in his or her judgements is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgements, especially when confidence is relatively high. Learn more at Wikipedia.

Source: Decision Traps by Russo and Shoemaker